Event Anchor

Polymarket · Yes · Jan 1, 2027

The market quotes 3.65¢. Independent valuation is not yet available.

What would overturn this?Independent valuation and sensitivity model data are not yet available.

Market price3.65¢Bid/ask midpoint　BID 3.60¢　ASK 3.70¢

Our Estimate—MODEL DATA UNAVAILABLE

Divergence—MODEL DATA UNAVAILABLE

Already happenedScheduled aheadAfter today

1 day+0.15¢

7 days-0.05¢

30 days-4.85¢

90 days-25.85¢

Event drivers

Recent Events

Future Events

Sep 24, 2026US Aims to Turn Stablecoins Into a Weapon for Dollar Dominance

Feed outdated · collected 2026-09-24 17:00 UTC. Decrypt · Indirect BTC relevance. Potential US funding for overseas stablecoin ventures to support the dollar's reserve status and Treasury demand could affect stablecoin supply, dollar liquidity in crypto markets and the broader dollar environment, with implications for BTC trading and demand. BTC-related coverage; no contract-level causal attribution.

Jan 1, 2027Settlement

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Sep 24, 2026Bitcoin Breakout Cools as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Climb

Feed outdated · collected 2026-09-24 17:00 UTC. Decrypt · Direct BTC relevance. The report directly covers Bitcoin's price pullback, its recent high and the potential effect of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. BTC-related coverage; no contract-level causal attribution.

Sep 24, 2026Morning Minute: Selig Says ‘It’s Go Time’ for CFTC Crypto Rules

Feed outdated · collected 2026-09-24 17:00 UTC. Decrypt · Indirect BTC relevance. Progress on CFTC crypto rules and the failed Clarity Act vote concern broader crypto regulation, which could affect compliance requirements, trading participation and institutional access to BTC markets. BTC-related coverage; no contract-level causal attribution.

Sep 24, 2026US Aims to Turn Stablecoins Into a Weapon for Dollar Dominance

Feed outdated · collected 2026-09-24 17:00 UTC. Decrypt · Indirect BTC relevance. Potential US funding for overseas stablecoin ventures to support the dollar's reserve status and Treasury demand could affect stablecoin supply, dollar liquidity in crypto markets and the broader dollar environment, with implications for BTC trading and demand. BTC-related coverage; no contract-level causal attribution.

Sep 24, 2026Bitcoin Breakout Cools as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Climb

Feed outdated · collected 2026-09-24 17:00 UTC. Decrypt · Direct BTC relevance. The report directly covers Bitcoin's price pullback, its recent high and the potential effect of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. BTC-related coverage; no contract-level causal attribution.

Sep 24, 2026Morning Minute: Selig Says ‘It’s Go Time’ for CFTC Crypto Rules

Feed outdated · collected 2026-09-24 17:00 UTC. Decrypt · Indirect BTC relevance. Progress on CFTC crypto rules and the failed Clarity Act vote concern broader crypto regulation, which could affect compliance requirements, trading participation and institutional access to BTC markets. BTC-related coverage; no contract-level causal attribution.

Sensitivity

Model not available

Implied volatility—

Volatility model not connected

Spot Bitcoin—

Bitcoin at $82,381.58

Fair value under these settings—Net edge —　Return —

Sensitivity model data is not yet available.

The full strike ladder

11 verified active downside contracts

11 verified active contracts with matching observation rules, expiry and outcome. Settled, incompatible or unverified contracts are excluded. Strikes are equally spaced by contract order, not USD distance.

MarketOur Estimate