Episode 32: Talking Prediction Market Enforcement With Kalshi’s Robert DeNault

Kalshi? On my podcast? Yep! Kalshi Head of Enforcement Robert DeNault joined me to talk about how investigations and enforcement work in prediction markets.Subscribe nowDaniel O’Boyle of InGame returns to break down all the latest news in prediction markets, including a deluge of advertising deals.Show notes:Kalshi on recent enforcement actionsNovig and Sydney SweeneyDraftKings ads directly referring to KalshiSports is still pretty big! NFL letter to prediction marketsIf you trade on sports and event exchanges, you need EDGE Boost — the financial platform built specifically for players. Sign up and you get an EDGE Boost Visa® debit card, physical and digital with no monthly or yearly usage fees. Access your funds outside banking hours with Instant Deposits 24/7/365. Daily Deposit Limits Up To $5M per transaction, and up to $50M per day, giving you easier/faster access to YOUR capital, subject to eligibility and account review. Plus earn up to 0.5% cashback on eligible deposits.Head to edgeboost.io and use promo code HORIZON to get a $100 deposit match on your first $100.The Event Horizon briefingA quick look at what matters most in prediction markets.📍 The Big StoryNFL + prediction markets?NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell spoke with CNBC about the nascent industry:“We think that there needs to be stronger regulations into the predictive markets,” Goodell said. “We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game. We want to make sure we’re protecting the consumers that are on those platforms for the NFL. So, we’re continuing to have conversations with them and talk to them about the things that we think they need to do to strengthen that so that they could be potential partners at some point in the future.”The NFL is going to be patient… Goodell even used that word later in the interview. So not today for a deal with Kalshi, Polymarket or others… but maybe someday!🔭 What To Watch ForThe App Store warsKalshi and Polymarket were both in the top 10 for all apps in the App Store on Sunday…they were even ahead of the NFL app:Downloads are interesting directionally, but the far more important metric is whether they are converting users. We’ll see if that shows up in the trading volume.And after a major outage last Saturday, it appears that Polymarket was up for the weekend.🔥 Hot MarketClarity Act passage?There’s been movement on the cryptocurrency market structure bill, with the White House apparently agreeing to new ethics language.Markets have moved to reflect better odds of passage before the end of the year:Although odds shifted again a bit by Monday morning at Kalshi:And…📝 New MarketsNew self-certifications listed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission:Kalshi college volleyball markets:Polymarket App Store rankings:Underdog NASCAR markets:💬 Quote Of The DayPete Sampras didn’t become a legend competing alone. He needed someone on the other side of the net. Someone who saw the point differently. Who challenged every shot. Who made him earn every win. Markets work the same way.—Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, Competition breeds legends. And better market prices (Kalshi blog/ad in newspapers)And the longer version on social media: 📊 Volume Tracking For Saturday, Sept. 12Kalshi volume: $2.42 billion (new record)Sports markets: 29.8% of volumeParlays: 60.9% of volumeCrypto markets: 8.7% of volumeTrend line from TickerTracker:Volume on other platforms:Polymarket US: $152.5 millionDraftKings’ DKeX: $93.3 millionNovig: $66.1 millionRothera: $34.4 millionUnderdog: Data outstandingProphetX: $10 millionCrypto.com data coming soon.News roundupEverything else important that happened in or was written about prediction markets:🚨 Important stuffThe US Government Launched 3 Previously Unreported Investigations of Polymarket Trades (Wired): “THE US GOVERNMENT launched at least three previously unreported investigations into trading on the prediction market Polymarket, according to documents obtained by WIRED through a Freedom of Information Act request. Voting records from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets, shed new light on how the government approaches these investigations.”Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won Big on Companies Audited by KPMG (WSJ): “A mystery Polymarket user earned about $22,000 with a series of near-perfect bets on the quarterly earnings of companies that had one thing in common: they were all audited by KPMG. The dozens of bets tied to earnings of 18 KPMG-audited companies, such as Wells Fargo, the Home Depot and DoorDash, began in November of last year and continued for several months, according to an analysis from Bubblemaps, a blockchain forensics firm.”How Minnesota Became the Front Line in the Fight Over Prediction Markets (The New York Times): “Emma Greenman, a state representative in Minnesota, first became concerned about prediction markets early this year.”“Teachers had complained to Ms. Greenman that underage users were downloading apps like Kalshi and Polymarket. She said she had grown worried that the platforms were becoming a back door to sports betting, which the state had never legalized.”“This wasn’t a problem we had, frankly, before 2025,” said Ms. Greenman, 47, a Democrat who also works as a voting-rights lawyer. “We see it as both a public safety and public health issue.”⚖️ Legal and regulatory newsUpdate on legal action in Connecticut:American Gaming Association Opposes CFTC Bid to Block New York Prediction-Market Enforcement (DeFi Rate): “The brief points to the Ninth Circuit’s Aug. 28 decision in KalshiEX LLC v. Assad, which the AGA says supports New York’s authority to regulate sports contracts as gambling. It also cites Kalshi advertising, product comparisons and reporting on Kalshi’s sports volume to argue that the economic product resembles a sportsbook wager more than a conventional financial hedge.”Gaming Commission remains member of gambling council after questions raised over ties to Kalshi (Mass Live): “The Massachusetts Gaming Commission will not follow the leads of gaming regulators in Ohio and Michigan and drop ties with the National Council on Problem Gambling over its new association with Kalshi.”📣 Industry newsFanDuel And DraftKings Don’t Offer CME Sports Contracts Anymore — So Why Is Volume Unusually Resilient? (InGame): “FanDuel has not offered any sports trades from CME in a month, InGame has learned, while DraftKings stopped offering CME sports contracts even earlier. Yet sports volume has remained in the millions of dollars in recent weeks, almost half of the platform’s peak during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup, and higher than April and May, when FanDuel Predicts was sending all of its volume to CME.”FanDuel CEO Sees Sports Prediction Markets as More Opportunity Than Challenge (Covers): “The No. 1 sports betting operator in the U.S. views its first full football season with a prediction market product as ‘more of an opportunity than a challenge,’ particularly amid the ongoing legal battle over sports event contracts. FanDuel CEO Christian Genetski told Scarlet Fu at Bloomberg Power Players 2026 in New York on Thursday that the company’s position is strong as numerous states battle prediction markets in the courts.”Underdog CEO: Handle Surging Thanks To Predictions (Legal Sports Report): “Customer handle is climbing rapidly as Underdog expands its prediction markets offering, founder and CEO Jeremy Levine said Wednesday at Bank of America’s Gaming & Lodging Conference.”“When we could only offer a sliver of the product, our customer handle was, doing the math in my head right now, well, a fourth what sportsbook’s customer handle is,” Levine said. “And prediction markets I think have even been higher because you get the trading dynamic and we’re seeing the climb happen rapidly in real time. So that’s super exciting.”📖 Everything else you should know/readCould this NFL season be the biggest yet for prediction markets? (NBC News): Betting on the NFL With Kalshi? You Might Be Trading Against FanDuel. (Barron’s): “But in many of Kalshi’s trades, customers are in fact going up against the proverbial house. Barron’s has learned that one of those houses is FanDuel, the popular U.S. sports betting app. Many other sports betting operators are trading on Kalshi, too, according to a company spokesperson.”Kalshi and Polymarket Aren’t Public. You Can Still Buy Them Through an ETF. (Barron’s): A growing crop of exchange-traded funds hold private shares of Kalshi and Polymarket through so-called special purpose vehicles (SPVs), which pool investor money to buy pre-IPO stock of a private company. The Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF —which launched Sept. 9 and sports the ticker symbol of DICE—has Kalshi and Polymarket as its top two holdings. The question, however, is whether investors should, ahem, roll the dice on these funds.LeBron James’ Polymarket ad is a who’s who of disappointing sellouts (Awful Announcing): “Over the Labor Day weekend, LeBron James announced a new partnership with Polymarket that drew a collective reaction of disappointment and fatigue. But if the idea of James endorsing the controversial prediction market that sidesteps any kind of regulation in offering sports gambling is nothing compared to just how many athletes and celebrities took the bag from Polymarket in the official advertisement.”Sydney Sweeney Courts Controversy Again With an Ad for Prediction Market Novig (Inc):