The Gang Bets Against The Eagles

I am sorry in advance if this isn’t funny, but I had to get this out of my system either way.IT'S ALWAYS SUNNY IN PHILADELPHIA"The Gang Bets Against The Eagles"COLD OPEN INT. PADDY'S PUB - DAY The bar is empty. DENNIS is staring at his phone. DEE and CHARLIE are behind the bar. MAC walks in talking excitedly.MACGuys, I have stumbled onto an amazing idea.DENNISAbsolutely not.MACYou haven’t even heard it yet.DENNISI don’t need to.DEENeither do I.CHARLIEDoes it have anything to do with rats?MAC(exasperated)Fine, I will go to another bar and tell them about this amazing idea where we pack this place and make a ton of money no matter what happens.MAC turns around to leaveDENNISFine, we’ll hear your moronic idea.DEEI’ll stand here and pretend like I am listening.MAC(pause for dramatic effect)We bet against the Eagles.Theme music, title card “The Gang Bets Against the Eagles”INT. PADDY'S PUB - DAYMACAlright, have you heard of Kalshi?DEEIsn’t that the gambling app?MACDee, shut up, it’s a very serious financial platform where we can trade on world events.DEEFrank had $10,000 on who would win Love Island the other night and broke the TV when he lost.DENNISI’m more of a Polymarket guy. Kalshi sounds like something Mac’s mom eats.MACAlright now listen, when the Eagles lose, what happens? People leave early, stop drinking, get pissed off, maybe fights break out, whatever. DENNISThat is actually a measurable revenue risk.MACExactly. So we bet against them.DENNISYou have accidentally described a hedge.MACI know what a hedge is.DENNISYou absolutely do not.CHARLIEThe rats hate it when the Eagles lose too.DEESo you’re rooting against the Eagles?MACNo! We’re rooting for the Eagles. Financially, we are rooting against the Eagles.FRANK walks in from the officeFRANKI want in on whatever you guys are scheming. The producer who gave me bad inside information on Love Island just gave me a new tip on Survivor and I need to get back in the game.DENNIS(ignores Frank for now)Here’s how we take it up a notch: We give away free beer if the Eagles lose.DEEExcuse me?DENNISThink about it. The bar fills up because of the promotion. If the Eagles win, everyone is happy, they spend too much on beer, they get super drunk and come back next week. We make a ton of money. But at the same time we bet against the Eagles. If the Eagles lose, everyone gets free beer, but the contract pays out. We win either way.CHARLIEDo I get free beer too?DEEYou work here, you already get free beer.FRANKOh I like this, we are gonna make a fortune.EXT. PADDY’S PUB - NIGHTMOVES TO INT. PADDY’S PUBThe bar is standing room only. The Eagles are on TV. DEE is running the bar while DENNIS, CHARLIE and MAC watch FRANK on his phone.DENNISOK, Frank, the game is about to start, did you place the trade on the Eagles to lose?FRANKYeah, but just covering the beer sales is boring. I want to feel something. So I bet $100,000 on the Eagles to lose.DENNIS(whispers angrily)Frank, what are you doing? This is no longer hedging. Now we have to root against the Eagles!MACI am not rooting against the Eagles. Frank, sell your position.CHARLIEAs long as I get free beer, I’m happy.DEE overhears the discussion while at the end of the barDEEWhat are you idiots doing? We are selling tons of beer. Someone help me!DENNISDee, please understand that we are dealing with some very sophisticated financial transactions here.DEEYou are gambling on football.CUT TO INTERIOR SHOTS OF BAR, TIME PASSESMACYes, touchdown Birds!MAC high-fives CHARLIE. FRANK slams his phone.CHARLIEI can almost taste that free beer.FRANKStop cheering for the Eagles, we are in a world of hurt if they win!DENNISLook, we are all diehard Eagles fans, but we cannot emotionally respond to individual plays. We are a hedged institution.DEEYou’re down $100,000 if they win. You’re not hedged anymore.DENNISYes, Dee, I am aware Frank has fundamentally altered our risk profile.MORE INTERIOR SHOTS OF BAR, TIME PASSESThe Eagles’ opponent scores and the bar groans, but FRANK and DENNIS are visibly celebrating. A table of customers notices.CUSTOMER 1Hey, why are you weirdos cheering when the other team scores?DENNISOh, we were cheering about something else, don’t mind us.CUSTOMER 2You better not cheer the next time the other team scores. We’re watching you.DENNIS(Whispers loudly)Frank, just sell your position, we can take some profits and the hedge still works. And those guys won’t beat us up after the game.FRANKNo can do, I broke my phone on that last Eagles touchdown.MORE INTERIOR SHOTS OF THE BAR, TIME PASSESThe Eagles are losing and need a touchdown on the final play of the game to win.FRANKWhat are all of you going to do with your share of the winnings?DENNISI have to admit, this was a terrible idea for a time, but it worked out in the end.CHARLIEDee, bring me a free beer!Everyone watches the final play. The announcer relays that the Eagles caught a Hail Mary and have won the game. MAC and CHARLIE jump up and down in celebration. DENNIS and FRANK look on in disbelief.DEEWe just made a ton of money at the bar. If Frank hadn’t gambled…DENNISYou mean hedged an outcome on a sports event at a federally regulated exchange.DEEWhatever! This whole thing would have worked!CHARLIESo we’re not doing the free beer then?ENDHat tip to Alex Goldenberg for the idea.The Event Horizon briefingA quick look at what matters most in prediction markets.📍 The Big StoryCFTC to Expand Crypto, Predictions Trading Via Online Platforms (Bloomberg)The Commodity Futures Trading Commission moved to expand crypto and prediction market trading via online platforms by exempting some software providers from registration requirements.In staff guidance issued Thursday, the CFTC said that “passive software” providers that are partnering with regulated entities wouldn’t face enforcement penalties for failing to register as brokers, so long as they never take custody of a user’s assets.This is like the arrangement between Phantom and Kalshi, where the former was one of those passive providers.We’ve already seen more of these relationships in the prediction markets space, but this provides more clarity.This arrangement between a designated contract market and a passive provider means you could see prediction markets surface on all sorts of online platforms.You can see the guidance from the CFTC here.🔭 What To Watch ForMissouri vs. prediction marketsFrom KVFS:Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway is filing a cease-and-desist against every prediction market company operating in Missouri.“The way that they take contracts, as what they would call them, I call them bets online on sporting events is just like how FanDuel and others do it,” Hanaway said.I guess we’ll see what happens in the Show-Me State, but my guess would be lawsuits.🔥 Hot MarketJames Fishback mention markets?The conservative political figure doesn’t seem to like that there was a mention market about his speech on Wednesday:There was only $26,000 traded on what he would say at Kalshi.Also, I have to agree that there is no legitimate need for a market on what he says.📝 New MarketsSelf-certifications listed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission:Just this ski resort market at Kalshi:💬 Quote Of The Day“If I follow your line of rationale with the federal government doing it, if they decided to set up ‘Murder Incorporated’ and said, ‘We’re going to regulate the murdering of people and so states you can’t do anything about it because it’s going to be federally regulated,’ I’d just find that absurd.”—Sen. Bob Hall | Best Quotes From Texas Prediction Market Hearings, Legal Sports Report📊 Volume Tracking For Wednesday, Sept. 16Kalshi volume: $1.93 billionSports: 20.8% of volumeParlays: 59.8% of volumeCrypto markets: 15.6% of volumeTrend line:Volume on other exchanges:Polymarket US: $259.9 millionNovig: $42.9 millionRothera: $41 millionDraftKings’ DKeX: $36.6 millionCrypto.com/NADEX: $36.2 millionUnderdog’s exchange: $26.5 millionProphetX: $5.7 millionNotes: Polymarket US appears to be populating correctly after reporting data incorrectly on its exchange site in some recent days.Underdog has launched a data site that includes both its own exchange and volume that flows through it via other exchanges. You can see it here.Data is provided by Ticker TrackerYou can’t pause current events when your payments can’t keep up. With every failed deposit or lengthy withdrawal process, customers lose trust in your brand. And when money doesn’t move fast enough, your liquidity suffers. PayNearMe’s PayXMTM platform is purpose-built for Payment Experience Management, giving you the fast, familiar payment options your customers want while streamlining back-end operations for your team. Get real-time payments for real-time events—from one simple integration.News roundupEverything else important that happened in or was written about prediction markets:🚨 Important stuffFrom Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan: “…just know we're working behind the scenes to unify the products and make Polymarket better than ever, across all surface areas.”⚖️ Legal and regulatory newsStates’ Uprising Against Prediction Markets (Governing): “A federal agency has sued at least nine states over their attempts to bar or regulate prediction markets. State leaders, meanwhile, have doubled down on their arguments that prediction markets are a form of gambling, which states have the authority to govern. Some state officials fear damaging consequences if they are not allowed to place limits on these markets, which have exploded in popularity.”Ninth Circuit Dea