Expert ratings are ignoring signs of a blue wave

KC GreenIn FLIPR’s view, it’s no longer accurate to describe the battle for the U.S. Senate as a “toss-up.”In our terminology, that designation covers all races where neither party has more than a 60 percent chance of winning. But Democrats’ Senate chances are now between 63 percent and 69 percent in all three versions of FLIPR, including 65 percent in our headline “Deluxe” version. It’s sometimes nice for forecasters when races are toss-ups; it keeps you from putting your neck out too far. And just to be abundantly clear, the Senate is salvageable for Republicans or at least bungle-able for Democrats. Democrats are kicking the equivalent of a 50+ yard field goal. Kickers make most of those kicks these days, but there are still plenty of ways to shank it.But for what it’s worth, FLIPR is in pretty strong alignment with prediction markets, which have Democrats at 61 percent to win the Senate. Conversely, expert ratings imply a much different political environment. The Cook Political Report, for example, counts seven races as “toss-ups,” including states like New Hampshire where models and prediction markets imply that Democrats are heavy favorites. This cautious view is misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterm elections, especially when the incumbent president is as unpopular as Trump. And it’s becoming harder to justify by the day. There’s not much longer to go — 44 days until Nov. 3 — and both national polls and race-by-race polls have been extremely strong for Democrats since Labor Day.Democrats’ big lead on the generic ballot is consistent with historyIt’s not hard to understand why Democrats have made further gains in polls lately. Gas prices have spiked to almost $4.50 per gallon, up 37 cents from a month ago and $1.29 from a year ago. Diesel prices have risen even more and affect more consumers than you might think.Meanwhile, President Trump’s disapproval rating is now 58.9 percent, the highest of his term so far, and his net approval rating of -20.5 is basically tied for his worst.1 Our model includes an internal calculation of what it thinks the national environment “should” be given the president’s approval rating, the results of the previous Congressional election, and the level of political polarization.2 This calculation, which is calibrated based on all races for Congress since World War II, has only a modest effect on the model3, but it still serves as a good benchmark. Currently, it says Democrats “should” win the popular vote for the U.S. House by 8.7 points. In other words, that’s what history says to expect in a midterm with a president this unpopular, even after accounting for the fact that high partisanship dampens political swings.So … where exactly do Democrats stand on the generic ballot? They’re up almost exactly that amount, 8.6 percentage points, after applying FLIPR’s likely voter adjustment:So 2026 is a year when current and historical trends align in a surprisingly neat way. But an environment like this would produce huge gains for Democrats. As Nate Cohn writes, we’re tracking toward around an 11-point swing from 2024, when Trump and Republicans narrowly won the popular vote for both the presidency and the House. That’s an interesting number if you look at the 2024 presidential vote because it means potentially breaching the “red wall” of states that wouldn’t ordinarily be competitive. Read more